Bird flu- The New Weapon of Mass Destruction?

A day after the UN health adviser David Nabarro warned 150 million lives could be lost; I was extremely surprised to find not one single article in the Saturday Daily Telegraph was dedicated to this threat. It has been estimated that a population equivalent to the whole of Russia could be wiped out at any time. Contrary to common conception, the largest threat to our welfare at the minute is not terrorists, nuclear production or global warming but bird flu. This disease has been described as a “combination of global warming and HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it's running at the moment”, but what exactly is it?

Bird flu - known technically as avian influenza - is a highly contagious viral disease affecting mostly chickens, ducks, turkeys, quails and other birds, and was first identified more than 100 years ago. It can be caused by any one of about 20 different strains of the influenza virus. The recent outbreaks in Asia, however, have been largely caused by a highly contagious and virulent strain, known as H5N1. At present, H5N1 is only slightly infectious to humans and cannot be transmitted from one human to another. Yet to date sixty people have lost their lives in Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. However, experts fear H5N1 may evolve into a virus that could be transferred among humans. This, they say, could lead to the first flu pandemic of the 21st century. Cases of bird flu in humans were first seen in Hong Kong in 1997 yet it is only in the last few months with the growing number of cases in Asian countries that concern is increasing.

But when pictures of Iraq and the devastation cause by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in America come flooding through are television screens, why isn’t bird flu in the public eye? In my opinion it is because as yet, the thought of bird flu mutating and forming a highly deadly new virus is only an idea. However, experts warn it is only a matter of time before this eventually happens, so what is being done?

Across Asia, culling has taken place as has vaccinating birds against the virus. However, these two methods come with their disadvantages, and common thought is that they actually help to contribute to the spread of disease. In the United Kingdom Contingency plans are based on 50,000 Britons dying from flu and around 14.6 million courses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu have been purchased-enough for a quarter of the UK’s population to be treated. However, as yet there is not a definitive vaccine and although antiviral drugs may help limit symptoms and reduce the chances disease will spread.

If the disease were to mutate much would depend upon on where it started, how quickly it was discovered and the kind of response they got from governments. New worries have recently been expressed because the disease has moved to wild migratory birds. Therefore there is a possibility that the first outbreak could happen even in Africa or in the Middle East. So what do you think about this threat? Is it a time bomb waiting to explode or has its potential threat been over-estimated? Finally, do you think enough is being done and do the public really understand what bird flu entails?

Jonathan Scally